2023 Cannabis Industry Predictions
Is a Hemp Boom Ahead? Is Federal Legalization On The Way? And What’s The New "It" Cannabinoid Replacing Delta-8's Reign?
Tammy: Welcome back, everyone! It's 2023 and I'm here with cannabis attorney Meital of Manzuri Law to give you our legal predictions of the year.
Meital: In 2023, we're gonna see some new developments in some really key areas, but a lot will stay the same—at least from a Federal perspective.
Tammy: Yeah, I don't see much happening on a Federal level. Maybe the SAFE Banking Act could be pushed through, but I'm not too hopeful about that.
Meital: Yeah, hopefully we'll see some progress.
In 2022, we had Biden indicate reform in his statement where he pardoned the folks that were convicted of a Federal cannabis offense.
And then he asked the government to review the scheduling of cannabis. So that was one of the biggest things we saw.
And so we'll see. I hope to see some actual progress there. I feel like we've already seen some.
Tammy: Yeah, we've definitely seen progress. Biden made history, whether we like it or not. All he had to do was the minimum and he did it.
So we'll see what's happening.
I did hear that the FDA might start regulating cannabis, which is very scary because if that happens, I’m concerned about what will happen to the industry.
Meital: Yeah, I think the FDA is going to start looking more at CBD for now. But it remains to be seen what that really looks like and how long that takes.
What other predictions do you have for 2023?
Tammy: Gosh, I think in 2023, we're going to have a new star in the cannabis industry.
I think that it's time for a new cannabinoid to take the world by storm. I think Delta-8 had its year. A couple of years ago CBD had its shine…
And now I think it's CBN, cannabinol.
Meital: I don't know. I feel like CBN has been around for a while.
Tammy: I feel like, because we’re in the industry, we know all about it.
But for the casual consumer or people who don't live in a legal state, I'm not sure they know too much about it.
Meital: Well, there was the CBM, the CBG, the THCA, and the THCV.
I think the appeal of Delta-8 was that it was not Federally illegal. Maybe it was, maybe it wasn't.
But I think you're right. I think that every year we will see a new, trendy, cannabinoid.
It's funny that as we get deeper into the history of cannabis, we can start to see some trends, this being one of them.
Tammy: So what predictions do you have for 2023?
Meital: Well, we're in the second week of January. And we've already seen a lot more states come online. So I think we're gonna see a domino effect continue.
You know, Minnesota, Texas. I really want to see Texas. I mean, they are expanding their medical program.
Tammy: Every state that borders Texas has some kind of program. They're just sitting on an island by themselves and not really budging.
But it would be nice to see Texas legalize cannabis in 2023 because they're losing a lot of revenue with Oklahoma being just down Interstate 35.
And they also have casinos. So you're losing a lot of tourists to casinos and cannabis. I would love to see the state of Texas expand.
But speaking of legalization, one of my predictions is you're going to see less advocacy and reformers pushing initiatives and more so companies going towards the lobbyists and the legalization route for their own self interests.
Meital: Yeah, I think that's been on an upward trend for a while.
We'll continue to see that. The Federal legalization topic is such a hot topic and so many people are interested and have their own individual interests. So definitely, we're gonna see some push there.
Tammy: Yeah, it hurts because the advocates or reformers, for the most part, were for the patients and the people. And now it’s more so for the profit.
Meital: It's getting closer to big business.
It's interesting. In California, because there are no market caps really. Unless they're home grown in Cali, we don't really see a lot of them.
One of my other predictions is that we’ll see more market consolidation this year. I've never seen so much reshuffling as to licenses and stuff.
I think that for a large portion of California's legalization, it's been all about gobbling up as much as you can as a business.
And now we're seeing that they are way over leveraged and need to focus on what is going to improve the bottom line.
So that's been really interesting and fun to just watch all those companies restructure.
Tammy: You do have an interesting perspective being on the legal side and working directly with companies and seeing how the legislation in the market is affecting them directly.
So, I love that you have that. And that overview applies for so many different types of companies, as well.
Meital: It's really fun. And then to fit the compliance piece into all of it.
So all of these businesses are buying and selling. There's a bunch of compliance and stuff that people probably don't care about except for me, but it's fun to make it all fit together.
Tammy: So one of my predictions for 2023 is the hemp boom.
We did have the 2018 farm bill that was passed, and that made industrial hemp a thing in America.
And I think with the new hemp farm bill that is going to be coming down this year, there's going to be an even greater expansion, and I think the hemp industry is going to really take off.
Meital: I hope so. I feel like hemp had all this growth and then it flopped a little bit and hit a plateau. There was overproduction and all these issues.
So it would be nice to see that resurgence.
It's interesting to see the tracks of the hemp industry as compared to the cannabis industry and how those markets actually differ, even though they're the same plant.
Tammy: So in my book club, we're reading a book called Marijuana Haters Guide To Making a Billion Dollars from Hemp.
Tammy: It’s so good, but the author grew up conservative. He's a Republican. He's an entrepreneur, but he always thought that cannabis was some evil thing that kills people until he did his own research.
And then he wrote this book. So he really does a great job of breaking down what cannabis is compared to hemp compared to marijuana.
And to me, it's all the same. And to everyone in cannabis, it's all the same. But to the outside world, they hear those three different words and they do assume that they're three different things.
I totally recommend this book if you want to look for a cannabis book or you're looking for a book to get info on hemp. Or if you want to read with some cool stoners.
Meital: But did he make a billion dollars?
Tammy: He is a real estate investor. So I'm assuming he's very rich.
Meital: Okay, well, great. I'll check it out.
Oh, I have another prediction. I think that New York is gonna have a tough year.
Everyone wants to be a part of it. But when rubber meets the road, I think it's going to be tough. Especially and mostly because of the unlicensed market.
You’re going to see California 2.0 with an unlicensed market, just being able to run rampant.
I think the only saving grace in New York is when it comes to enforcement, I feel like New York's a little more serious than California. So maybe they'll be more effective.
But I think the clandestine sort of operations, like speakeasies, are just going to be whack-a-mole. It's impossible to track. They wanted to open up the market, so they put a moratorium on enforcement, but then that created this gray market.
Tammy: I wish it could be so easy. It's so complicated.
There's got to be some kind of way to be creative in how we’re addressing cannabis. Because from a legislative perspective, I feel like we overcomplicate things.
Meital: Yeah, that's pretty much it.
Tammy: There’s too many people in New York with how they are doing it. It's gonna take forever. There's not enough manpower, there's not enough budget, there's not enough resources to really figure that situation out.
So yeah, we're gonna be watching another California.
Meital: I think what happens is that when you've got a whole new market coming online, everybody wants a piece of it. And so in order to get through it, everybody has to get their piece.
And then you're just stuck where you're trying to raise money, you're trying to make social justice reform, you're trying to be compliant, give preferences to residents. All these different things.
You're trying to boost all these different social aspects, which are honorable and great and I support them.
But at the same time, it just creates this tightrope. Which we are also seeing at the macro level, the Federal level.
Tammy: Yeah. So New York will definitely be something to watch.
Meital: Yep. What else? What other predictions do we have?
Tammy: Oh, I have a scary prediction. As an advocate, I have to speak on it. I do believe, in 2023, the number of children that accidentally get into edibles or bowls is going to continue to rise.
We need to have an honest conversation about that. And talk about storage responsibility.
You never think it's going to happen to you or your family or your child until it does.
And it's such a scary moment for a mother. When your child is distressed, or in some kind of harm. I don't know a greater pain than seeing my child suffer.
So a lot of parents are taking their children to hospitals because they're scared, rightfully so. But there is a good chance that you may not come across a non-judgmental staff.
Meital: Yeah. I think my hope is that, if a kid does get into edibles, you should take your kid to the doctor, right?
Tammy: It’s hard because as an advocate, anytime you see any of those stories, you don't want to acknowledge that there's a bad side effect of legalization. But it's happening, and it's true.
Proper storage is really important.
You know, that's another issue with products being bought off the illicit market. They're not subject to the same scrutiny for packaging. So I would say if you're a parent, and you do live in a legal state, you get your edibles from a licensed facility so that it's properly packaged.
I was struggling with a piece of packaging that I got for Christmas. I was struggling through the packaging and my daughter opened it for me. I could not, for the life of me, get it open.
Meital: Oh my gosh, I don't know what that says about you or about the packaging.
Tammy: This little tin can was hard to open.
Meital: Oh, the ones that you have to squeeze and turn?
Tammy: Yeah, some of those are hit or miss. Some of them don't even work at all. And this one did not work. But for her it did.
Meital: Oh, that's scary. Like, wow, what about the little Ziploc ones?
Tammy: I don't know if kids can figure those out. Those are very complicated. Yeah, those can be complicated. Some of them you have to press down and slide your finger. It's so weird.
The packaging is ridiculous because I remember my two year old niece drinking a Mike's Hard Lemonade and there's no childproof packaging on that.
Meital: Oh my gosh.
Tammy: It's not resealable either. Once that lid comes off, it's off and then I'm like a teenager and she's just like chilling and relaxing. And when I found out what had happened, I was like, “Oh my gosh, how much did she drink?”
Meital: Which is potentially way more harmful.
Tammy: Correct. The Youth drinking rate is so high.
For so many people, their first drink came from their house, from their parents' own stash. So we have to know that that's going to happen with cannabis. And especially if it looks like a gummy, or candy, or cookie, or a brownie—please know that your child is going to get into that!
Taking them to the hospital…that is a personal decision. Depending on where you live, you could get different outcomes.
In a place like California, you're probably fine, right? In a place like Texas, they will call CPS and you will have your child taken away. That is very traumatizing.
At that point, your best bet is to stay home, make sure they're comfortable and hydrated, and just know that they are going to sleep.
Meital: But what if you don’t know what they got into?
Tammy: Yeah, that's another thing. That’s the part that’s scary.
Meital: Yeah, they got into something. Maybe you don't know what they got into.
Tammy: And for your pets. Like the funny dog videos where they get into the candy. It is so funny, but it's also so sad.
Meital: Oh my gosh, I'll never forget, one of my colleagues at the time had a dog that got into the edibles and he looked like he was on a boat. He was just swaying back and forth like he couldn’t get his bearings.
Tammy: It’s so cute, but it's so bad. So yeah, protect your animals, protect your kid, and protect your family because CPS can get involved and if CPS gets involved. It is going to be a very difficult process for everyone.
Meital: There was that video of that woman who, before giving birth, told the personnel that she had ingested cannabis, not even while she was pregnant.
I guess she made some declaration that she'd smoked cannabis before. And they took that to the 10th level and tested the child for cannabis and other drugs.
You know, different hospital personnel will respond differently. But I think that one of the most dangerous points of talking about cannabis is when you're about to give birth.
Tammy: I just dueted a woman on Tik Tok who admitted to drug use in college, which was years and years ago. She's having her baby and admitted to smoking weed in college. APS came in and had to test her and test her baby.
It was just crazy. Do not admit any of that. I know you want to be honest. And it may be that it hurts in your heart to be a liar, but I need you to lie.
They're probably gonna test you anyway. In some states, you automatically get drug tested. No need for informed consent.
Some of the laws around women in cannabis are insane.
Now, if you are prescribed opiates and that baby has an opiate withdrawal, totally fine. You had a prescription and you were allowed to do it.
But if a mother chooses to use cannabis for her medicine, for her epilepsy, for her pain, for her nausea, for her moods, that could ruin the baby's life.
That skin to skin contact can be interrupted and the first few days of bonding can be interrupted, all because of consumption.
So you have to look into your state and be very, very careful.
Meital: Yeah, that's good advice. What do you think about 2022? What were some like big cannabis events in 2022?
Tammy: Gosh, cannabis events in 2022. We saw a lot of states legalize or potentially legalize. We had the Dakotas. We had Missouri. Gosh, I can't remember them all off the top of my head. But we had a lot of states that were able to legalize.
Meital: Yeah, there were a lot of states that have legalized, like New York, which is a big one. What else was big in 2022?
Tammy: We saw Diddy enter the cannabis industry in 2022. It'll be interesting to see what happens there.
Meital: You were saying that you think there's gonna be more celebrity brands in the industry, right?
Tammy: I do think there's gonna be a lot more celebrity brands on the horizon. We have Lil Wayne, Snoop Dogg, Drake. Those are really big people.
Again, Diddy has entered the industry. Wiz Khalifa seems to be doing really well with Khalifa Kush across the nation.
So it'll be interesting to see what other players move into the market.
Because typically in California, celebrity doesn’t mean much. It's really cannabis connoisseurs and what they want.
Meital: What about women? Are there any women's cannabis brands? I mean, cannabis celebrity brands? I feel like we are mostly seeing men.
Tammy: Yeah, that's very true. I guess we'll have to see. But I'd love to see Rihanna with one.
Meital: Oh my gosh, she just makes too much otherwise. Like, she doesn't need it.
Tammy: I mean, she absolutely could do it. She has her hand in everything: makeup, fashion, now she's a mother, skincare, music. She has a whole vibe.
Meital: So I have our top five from last year. We talked about California.
Okay, this is something that I think we're gonna see in 2023. We are going to see an increase in consumer rights.
Like, just from ‘22, what California did with employment, parental rights, and so on. I think that's really where we need to see progress across the country. And hopefully we'll see more.
Tammy: Let California be a case study now that parents know they won't lose their children.
Meital: So there were four states last year that we talked about. So there were the new medical ones: Mississippi, Rhode Island, Missouri, and Maryland.
Then we talked about the Federal cannabis reform lawsuits arising out of New York, that was really interesting. Did you follow that whole Dormant Commerce Clause thing?
Tammy: I did not.
Meital: Yeah, it's interesting. Now they're saying that these states that have rules for licensing that prohibit other residents of other states from selling are unconstitutional.
So a Federal court is looking at a cannabis law to decide whether it's constitutional or not. When cannabis is illegal, Federally.
Tammy: Gosh, how do you interpret that?
Meital: That's so interesting. That's why I love practicing in this area. So in Federal law, cannabis is illegal. The Federal court is deciding whether a certain cannabis law is constitutional.
Tammy: Yeah, the hypocrisy there. I mean, do you think they'll actually go through with it?
Meital: They did. They made a decision.
So in New York, there was a rule that said if you did not do business in New York currently, or were not a current New York resident, then you couldn't apply for the license.
And this happened also in Maine and in Washington.
And all the Federal courts are ruling that if you have that part of the law for the licenses, it's unconstitutional. It violates the Dormant Commerce Clause.
So it's just really interesting, though, that all these Federal courts are making decisions on whether cannabis laws in various states are constitutional.
Tammy: I mean, something has to be done about that, too.
Meital: But it's an interesting concept. It's forbidding other state residents from participating in the market. And that is a violation of the Dormant Commerce Clause, which says that you cannot prohibit other state residents from doing business in your state.
Tammy: United States of America.
Meital: But then interstate commerce is illegal.
Tammy: The irony?
Meital: I just find it so interesting. There's all the treatises online about it. You can read about how it's such an interesting concept.
Oh, yeah. And the city of LA had to battle that same issue because the guy from New York also filed a suit in another state. And he came in and filed in LA, too.
Tammy: Wow. Interesting. I need to read up on that.
Meital: Yeah. I can send you some good articles. Any other predictions?
Tammy: More education. I think people are going to be more curious about cannabis. So the basic information is going to be something that people out there are looking for as more states are legalizing or contemplating legalization.
So get yourself ready advocates and educators because we're about to be really busy.
Meital: I just thought of something going back to your comment about hemp and this being the year of hemp.
Did you see that they are removing some of the advertising restrictions on Google for hemp?
Tammy: I did see that. And even the FDA is de-regulating, so all of this to me signals that there's gonna be a really big ‘something’ in the 2023 farm bill.
Something that is going to potentially pump up the economy. And Amazon is getting on board to start delivering. Even Uber might get involved.
Meital: Stay tuned.
Tammy: It's just a prediction.
Meital: Um, okay. What else do we want to talk about?
Tammy: 2022 for weed, I think, was really tough. I think as an industry and just the economy overall, a lot of businesses shuttered their doors or they struggled, especially with the high taxes in California.
And I just hope 2023 is a much better year for everyone, especially the people who are in it for the right reasons with really good intentions to impact and create change and effect change.
So those are my hopes for the year.
Meital: I hate to break it to you, but I think 2023 is gonna be tough. I think it's gonna be the year where people lean out. And those that survive and make it through the year will be the tough contenders.
They'll do well, but I think we'll continue to see a little bit of tough times with the smaller businesses.
Tammy: So the blips aren't over. But there is still good to come, either way.
That's our 2023 predictions. Of course, we'll be back as the news drops. Let us know what you want to hear about, too.
Meital: Yeah, let us know. Thank you.
Tammy: Peace! ✌️
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